Futures contract

Overview

In finance, a futures contract (often just called a future) is a standardized legal contract to buy or sell something at a predetermined price for delivery at a specified time in the future, between parties not yet known to each other. The item transacted is usually a commodity or financial instrument. The predetermined price of the contract is known as the forward price or delivery price. The specified time in the future when delivery and payment occur is known as the delivery date. Because it derives its value from the value of the underlying asset, a futures contract is a derivative. Futures contracts are widely used for hedging price risk and for speculative trading in commodities, currencies, and financial instruments. Futures contracts are traded at futures exchanges, which act as a marketplace between buyers and sellers. The party who agrees to buy the underlying asset at the agreed futures price on the delivery date is said to be the long position holder, while the party who agrees to sell (deliver) the underlying asset at the agreed futures price on the delivery date is said to be the short position holder. As both parties risk their counter-party reneging if the price goes against them, the contract may involve both parties lodging a margin of the value of the contract with a mutually trusted third party for security. For example, in gold futures trading, the margin varies between 2% and 20% depending on the volatility of the spot market. A stock future is a cash-settled futures contract on the value of a particular stock market index. Stock futures are one of the high risk trading instruments in the market. Stock market index futures are also used as indicators to determine market sentiment. The first futures contracts were negotiated for agricultural commodities, and later futures contracts were negotiated for natural resources such as oil. Financial futures were introduced in 1972, and in recent decades, currency futures, interest rate futures, stock market index futures, and perpetual futures have played an increasingly large role in the overall futures markets. Retail traders increasingly use futures contracts alongside options strategies to hedge positions, manage leverage, and scale entries in volatile markets. Even organ futures have been proposed to increase the supply of transplant organs. The original use of futures contracts mitigates the risk of price or exchange rate movements by allowing parties to fix prices or rates in advance for future transactions. This could be advantageous when (for example) a party expects to receive payment in foreign currency in the future and wishes to guard against an unfavorable movement of the currency in the interval before payment is received. However, futures contracts also offer opportunities for speculation in that a trader who predicts that the price of an asset will move in a particular direction can contract to buy or sell it in the future at a price which (if the prediction is correct) will yield a profit. In particular, if the speculator is able to profit, then the underlying commodity that the speculator traded would have been saved during a time of surplus and sold during a time of need, offering the consumers of the commodity a more favorable distribution of the commodity over time.

Origin

The first historically known creation and use of futures may have been Thales of Miletus with his purchase of olive presses before an expected bumper crop of olives. The Dōjima Rice Exchange, first established in 1697 in Osaka, is considered by some to be the first futures exchange market, to meet the needs of samurai who—being paid in rice—needed a stable conversion to coin after a series of bad harvests. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) listed the first-ever standardized "exchange traded" forward contracts in 1864, which were called futures contracts. This contract was based on grain trading, and started a trend that saw contracts created on a number of different standardized futures contracts based on commodities, as well as a number of futures exchanges set up in countries around the world. By 1875 cotton futures were being traded in Bombay in India and within a few years this had expanded to futures on edible oilseeds complex, raw jute and jute goods and bullion. In the 1930s two thirds of all futures was in wheat. The 1972 creation of the International Monetary Market (IMM) by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was the world's first financial futures exchange, and launched currency futures. In 1976, the IMM added interest rate futures on US treasury bills, and in 1982 they added stock market index futures.

Risk mitigation

Although futures contracts are oriented towards a future time point, their main purpose is to mitigate the risk of default by either party in the intervening period. In this vein, the futures exchange requires both parties to put up initial cash, or a performance bond, known as the margin. Margins, sometimes set as a percentage of the value of the futures contract, must be maintained throughout the life of the contract to guarantee the agreement, as over this time the price of the contract can vary as a function of supply and demand, causing one side of the exchange to lose money at the expense of the other. To mitigate the risk of default, the product is marked to market on a daily basis where the difference between the initial agreed-upon price and the actual daily futures price is re-evaluated daily. This is sometimes known as the variation margin, where the futures exchange will draw money out of the losing party's margin account and put it into that of the other party, ensuring the correct loss or profit is reflected daily. If the margin account goes below a certain value set by the exchange, then a margin call is made and the account owner must replenish the margin account. On the delivery date, the amount exchanged is not the specified price on the contract but the spot value, since any gain or loss has already been previously settled by marking to market.

Margin

To minimize counterparty risk to traders, trades executed on regulated futures exchanges are guaranteed by a clearing house. The clearing house becomes the buyer to each seller, and the seller to each buyer, so that in the event of a counterparty default the clearer assumes the risk of loss. This enables traders to transact without performing due diligence on their counterparty. Margin requirements are waived or reduced in some cases for hedgers who have physical ownership of the covered commodity or spread traders who have offsetting contracts balancing the position. Clearing margin are financial safeguards to ensure that companies or corporations perform on their customers' open futures and options contracts. Clearing margins are distinct from customer margins that individual buyers and sellers of futures and options contracts are required to deposit with brokers. Customer margin Within the futures industry, financial guarantees required of both buyers and sellers of futures contracts and sellers of options contracts to ensure fulfillment of contract obligations. Futures Commission Merchants are responsible for overseeing customer margin accounts. Margins are determined on the basis of market risk and contract value. Also referred to as performance bond margin. Initial margin is the equity required to initiate a futures position. This is a type of performance bond. The maximum exposure is not limited to the amount of the initial margin, however, the initial margin requirement is calculated based on the maximum estimated change in contract value within a trading day. The initial margin is set by the exchange. If a position involves an exchange-traded product, the amount or percentage of the initial margin is set by the exchange concerned. In case of loss or if the value of the initial margin is being eroded, the broker will make a margin call in order to restore the amount of initial margin available. Often referred to as "variation margin", margin called, for this reason, is usually done on a daily basis, however, in times of high volatility, a broker can make a margin call intra-day. Margin calls are usually expected to be paid and received on the same day. If not, the broker has the right to close sufficient positions to meet the amount called by way of margin. After the position is closed out the client is liable for any resulting deficit in the client's account. Some U.S. exchanges also use the term "maintenance margin", which in effect defines how much the value of the initial margin can reduce before a margin call is made. However, most non-US brokers only use the term "initial margin" and "variation margin". The Initial Margin requirement is established by the Futures exchange, in contrast to other securities' Initial Margin (which is set by the Federal Reserve in the U.S. Markets). A futures account is marked to market daily. If the margin drops below the margin maintenance requirement established by the exchange listing the futures, a margin call will be issued to bring the account back up to the required level. Maintenance margin A set minimum margin per outstanding futures contract that a customer must maintain in their margin account. Margin-equity ratio is a term used by speculators, representing the amount of their trading capital that is being held as margin at any particular time. The low margin requirements of futures results in substantial leverage of the investment. However, the exchanges require a minimum amount that varies depending on the contract and the trader. The broker may set the requirement higher, but may not set it lower. A trader, of course, can set it above that, if he does not want to be subject to margin calls. Performance bond margin The amount of money deposited by both a buyer and seller of a futures contract or an options seller to ensure the performance of the term of the contract. Margin in commodities is not a payment of equity or down payment on the commodity itself, but rather it is a security deposit. Return on margin (ROM) is often used to judge performance because it represents the gain or loss compared to the exchange's perceived risk as reflected in the required margin. ROM may be calculated (realized return) / (initial margin). The Annualized ROM is equal to (ROM+1)(year/trade_duration)-1. For example, if a trader earns 10% on margin in two months, that would be about 77% annualized.

Expiry

Expiry (or "expiration" in the U.S.) is the time and the day that a particular delivery month of a futures contract stops trading, as well as the final settlement price for that contract. For many equity index futures and interest rate futures as well as for most equity (index) options, this happens on the third Friday of certain trading months. On this day the back month futures contract becomes the front-month futures contract, and the front-month futures contract becomes the back month futures contract. For example, for most CME and CBOT contracts, at the expiration of the December contract, the March futures become the nearest contract. During a short period (perhaps 30 minutes) the underlying cash price and the futures prices sometimes struggle to converge. At this moment the futures and the underlying assets are extremely liquid and any disparity between an index and an underlying asset is quickly traded by arbitrageurs. At this moment also, the increase in volume is caused by traders rolling over positions to the next contract or, in the case of equity index futures, purchasing underlying components of those indexes to hedge against current index positions. On the expiry date, a European equity arbitrage trading desk in London or Frankfurt will see positions expire in as many as eight major markets every approximate half hour. Exchanges implement strict limits on how much exposure an entity may have closer to expiration as an effort to avoid any volatility around final settlement.

Final settlement

Final settlement is the act of consummating the contract, and can be done in one of two ways, as specified per type of futures contract:

Physical delivery − the amount specified of the underlying asset of the contract is delivered by the seller of the contract to the exchange, and by the exchange to the buyers of the contract. Physical delivery is common with commodities and bonds. In practice, it occurs only on a minority of contracts. Most are canceled out by purchasing a covering position—that is, buying a contract to cancel out an earlier sale (covering a short), or selling a contract to liquidate an earlier purchase (covering a long). The majority of energy contracts on the NYMEX use this method of settlement upon expiration. The vast majority of contracts do not end up settling for physical delivery; holders will either close out the position by reversing their exposure, or, for some physical traders, settle via an EFP (Exchange For Physical) arrangement with a counterparty holding the opposite position. Some Treasuries contracts on the CBOT also settle via physical delivery. Cash settlement − a cash payment is made based on the underlying reference rate, such as a short-term interest rate index such as 90 Day T-Bills, or the closing value of a stock market index. The parties settle by paying/receiving the loss/gain related to the contract in cash when the contract expires. Cash settled futures are those that, as a practical matter, could not be settled by delivery of the referenced item—for example, it would be impossible to deliver an index. A futures contract might also opt to settle against an index based on trade in a related spot market. ICE Brent futures use this method of settlement. Final settlement is distinct from trade settlement, which confirms that the security has been fully paid for and delivered, and mark-to-market settlement, which keeps the price of the contract commensurate with the price of the underlying asset.

Pricing

When the deliverable asset exists in plentiful supply or may be freely created, then the price of a futures contract is determined via arbitrage arguments. This is typical for stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and futures on physical commodities when they are in supply (e.g. agricultural crops after the harvest). However, when the deliverable commodity is not in plentiful supply or when it does not yet exist—for example on crops before the harvest or on Eurodollar Futures or Federal funds rate futures (in which the supposed underlying instrument is to be created upon the delivery date)—the futures price cannot be fixed by arbitrage. In this scenario, there is only one force setting the price, which is simple supply and demand for the asset in the future, as expressed by supply and demand for the futures contract.

Arbitrage arguments

Arbitrage arguments ("rational pricing") apply when the deliverable asset exists in plentiful supply or may be freely created. Here, the forward price represents the expected future value of the underlying discounted at the risk-free rate—as any deviation from the theoretical price will afford investors a risk-free profit opportunity and should be arbitraged away. We define the forward price to be the strike K such that the contract has 0 value at the present time. Assuming interest rates are constant the forward price of the futures is equal to the forward price of the forward contract with the same strike and maturity. It is also the same if the underlying asset is uncorrelated with interest rates. Otherwise, the difference between the forward price on the futures (futures price) and the forward price on the asset, is proportional to the covariance between the underlying asset price and interest rates. For example, a futures contract on a zero-coupon bond will have a futures price lower than the forward price. This is called the futures "convexity correction". Thus, assuming constant rates, for a simple, non-dividend paying asset, the value of the futures/forward price, F(t,T), will be found by compounding the present value S(t) at time t to maturity T by the rate of risk-free return r.

F ( t , T ) = S ( t ) × ( 1 + r

)

( T − t )

{\displaystyle F(t,T)=S(t)\times (1+r)^{(T-t)}}

or, with continuous compounding

F ( t , T ) = S ( t )

e

r ( T − t )

{\displaystyle F(t,T)=S(t)e^{r(T-t)}\,}

This relationship may be modified for storage costs u, dividend or income yields q, and convenience yields y. Storage costs are costs involved in storing a commodity to sell at the futures price. Investors selling the asset at the spot price to arbitrage a futures price earns the storage costs they would have paid to store the asset to sell at the futures price. Convenience yields are benefits of holding an asset for sale at the futures price beyond the cash received from the sale. Such benefits could include the ability to meet unexpected demand, or the ability to use the asset as an input in production. Investors pay or give up the convenience yield when selling at the spot price because they give up these benefits. Such a relationship can be summarized as:

F ( t , T ) = S ( t )

e

( r + u − y ) ( T − t )

{\displaystyle F(t,T)=S(t)e^{(r+u-y)(T-t)}\,}

The convenience yield is not easily observable or measured, so y is often calculated, when r and u are known, as the extraneous yield paid by investors selling at spot to arbitrage the futures price. Dividend or income yields q are more easily observed or estimated, and can be incorporated in the same way:

F ( t , T ) = S ( t )

e

( r + u − q ) ( T − t )

{\displaystyle F(t,T)=S(t)e^{(r+u-q)(T-t)}\,}

Pricing via expectation

When the deliverable commodity is not in plentiful supply (or when it does not yet exist) rational pricing cannot be applied, as the arbitrage mechanism is not applicable. Here the price of the futures is determined by today's supply and demand for the underlying asset in the future. In an efficient market, supply and demand would be expected to balance out at a futures price that represents the present value of an unbiased expectation of the price of the asset at the delivery date. This relationship can be represented as::

F ( t ) =

E

t

{

S ( T )

}

e

( r ) ( T − t )

{\displaystyle F(t)=E_{t}\left\{S(T)\right\}e^{(r)(T-t)}}

By contrast, in a shallow and illiquid market, or in a market in which large quantities of the deliverable asset have been deliberately withheld from market participants (an illegal action known as cornering the market), the market clearing price for the futures may still represent the balance between supply and demand but the relationship between this price and the expected future price of the asset can break down.

Relationship between arbitrage arguments and expectation

The expectation-based relationship will also hold in a no-arbitrage setting when we take expectations with respect to the risk-neutral probability. In other words: a futures price is a martingale with respect to the risk-neutral probability. With this pricing rule, a speculator is expected to break even when the futures market fairly prices the deliverable commodity.

Contango, backwardation, normal and inverted markets

The situation where the price of a commodity for future delivery is higher than the expected spot price is known as contango. Markets are said to be normal when futures prices are above the current spot price and far-dated futures are priced above near-dated futures. The reverse, where the price of a commodity for future delivery is lower than the expected spot price is known as backwardation. Similarly, markets are said to be inverted when futures prices are below the current spot price and far-dated futures are priced below near-dated futures.

Contract

There are many different kinds of futures contracts, reflecting the many different kinds of "tradable" assets about which the contract may be based such as commodities, securities (such as single-stock futures), currencies or intangibles such as interest rates and indexes. For information on futures markets in specific underlying commodity markets, follow the links. For a list of tradable commodities futures contracts, see List of traded commodities. See also the futures exchange article.

Foreign exchange market – see Currency future Money market – see Interest rate future Bond market – see Interest rate future Equity market – see Stock market index future and Single-stock futures Commodity market Cryptocurrencies – see Perpetual futures Trading on commodities began in Japan in the 18th century with the trading of rice and silk, and similarly in Holland with tulip bulbs. Trading in the US began in the mid 19th century when central grain markets were established and a marketplace was created for farmers to bring their commodities and sell them either for immediate delivery (also called spot or cash market) or for forward delivery. These forward contracts were private contracts between buyers and sellers and became the forerunner to today's exchange-traded futures contracts. Although contract trading began with traditional commodities such as grains, meat, and livestock, exchange trading has expanded to include metals, energy, currency and currency indexes, equities and equity indexes, government interest rates, and private interest rates.