Industry WIKI

Altreva Adaptive Modeler is a software application for creating agent-based financial market simulation models for the purpose of forecasting prices of real world market traded stocks or other securities. The technology it uses is based on the theory of agent-based computational economics (ACE), the computational study of economic processes modeled as dynamic systems of interacting heter

An assassination market is a prediction market where any party can place a bet (using anonymous electronic money and pseudonymous remailers) on the date of death of a given individual. This incentivises assassination of the individual, as parties with advance knowledge of an assassination plot can profit by betting accurately on the date of the death. Because the payoff is for accurately

Augur is a decentralized prediction market platform built on the Ethereum blockchain. Augur is developed by Forecast Foundation, which was founded in 2014 by Jack Peterson, Joey Krug, and Jeremy Gardner. Forecast Foundation is advised by Ron Bernstein, founder of now-defunct company Intrade, and Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin.

Backtesting is a term used in modeling to refer to testing a predictive model on historical data. Backtesting is a type of retrodiction, and a special type of cross-validation applied to previous time period(s). In quantitative finance, backtesting is an important step before deploying algorithmic strategies in live markets.

Blockchain.com (formerly Blockchain.info) is a cryptocurrency financial services company. The company began as the first Bitcoin blockchain explorer in 2011 and later created a cryptocurrency wallet that accounted for 28% of bitcoin transactions between 2012 and 2020. It also operates a cryptocurrency brokerage and provides institutional markets lending business and data, charts, and ana

In finance, box office futures is a type of futures contract in which investors speculate on upcoming movies based on their predicted performance.

Econophysics is a transdisciplinary research field in heterodox economics. It applies theories and methods originally developed by physicists to problems in economics, usually those including uncertainty or stochastic processes and nonlinear dynamics. Some of its application to the study of financial markets has also been termed statistical finance referring to its roots in statistical p

The Hollywood Stock Exchange, or HSX, is a web-based, multiplayer game in which players use simulated money to buy and sell "shares" of actors, directors, upcoming films, and film-related options. The game uses Virtual Specialist technology invented by HSX co-founders and creators Max Keiser and Michael R. Burns, who were awarded a U.S. patent no. 5950176 in 1999 for the invention. Clai

Intrade.com was a web-based prediction market which offered a platform where individuals could place bets on future outcomes. After having been forced to exclude US traders in 2012, on 10 March 2013 Intrade suspended all trading, citing possible "financial irregularities". For a time after the suspension, the intrade.com website stated that they were working on a relaunch of the site, ca

Kalshi Inc. is a prediction market platform based in Manhattan, New York City, that launched in July 2021. The platform is used primarily for sports betting, which constitutes more than 90% of site activity and 89% of revenue in 2025. Analysts describe activity on the platform as "heavily tied to the sports calendar". Individuals can place bets on other future outcomes, including economi

In investing and finance, the low-volatility anomaly is the observation that low-volatility securities have higher returns than high-volatility securities in most markets studied. In other words, assets whose prices or returns change wildly pay worse than assets whose prices or returns are steady. This is an example of a stock market anomaly since it contradicts the central prediction of

Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements (market trends). The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market rather than fo

Novig is a sports-focused prediction market platform based in New York City. It is regulated as a financial exchange rather than a sportsbook.

Plus500 is a global multi-asset financial technology company headquartered in Haifa, Israel, that provides online trading services in contracts for difference (CFDs), share dealing, futures trading, prediction markets and options on futures. It is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 250 Index and the STOXX Europe 600.

The Policy Analysis Market (PAM), part of the FutureMAP project, was a proposed futures exchange developed, beginning in May 2001, by the Information Awareness Office (IAO) of the United States Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and based on an idea first proposed by Net Exchange, a San Diego, California, research firm specializing in the development of online prediction

Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market which offers a platform where individuals can place bets on future outcomes, including sports matches, economic indicators, weather patterns, awards, political and legislative outcomes, and military conflicts. Participants can deposit cryptocurrency through the Polygon blockchain network and trade shares that represent the

Prediction markets, also known as betting markets, information markets, decision markets, idea futures, or event derivatives, are open markets that enable the prediction of specific outcomes using financial incentives. They are exchange-traded markets established for trading bets in the outcome of various events.

PredictIt is a United States-based online prediction market that offers exchanges on political and financial events. PredictIt is a project of the Prediction Market Research Consortium, a not-for-profit organization, for educational purposes and is supported by Aristotle, Inc. The company's office is located in Washington, D.C. Only United States citizens can bet on the site.

Predictive analytics encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modeling, and machine learning that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events.

The scenario approach or scenario optimization approach is a technique for obtaining solutions to robust optimization and chance-constrained optimization problems based on a sample of the constraints. It also relates to inductive reasoning in modeling and decision-making. The technique has existed for decades as a heuristic approach and has more recently been given a systematic theoretic

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all currently available information and any price changes that are not based on newly reveal

A stock market simulator is computer software that reproduces behavior and features of a stock market, so that a user may practice trading stocks without financial risk. Paper trading, sometimes also called "virtual stock trading", is a simulated trading process in which would-be investors can practice investing without committing money.

The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by Philip E. Tetlock (author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction and Expert Political Judgment), decision scientist Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, all professors at the University of Pennsylvania.